Monday, December 22, 2008

Francisco's Folly: Why Signing Closers To Huge Contracts Is Generally a Bad Idea

The New York Mets recently signed the best free agent closer on the market and the recent setter of a single season record for saves, Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez, to a 3 year deal worth 36 million dollars, immediately upgrading their horrid bullpen and momentarily satisfying the bloodlust of the rabid weasel that is the New York press. This move seems to make a lot of sense, but upon further review, it becomes apparent it may not have been such a tremendously great move. There are two types of issues with this signing. The problems with Mr. K-Rod himself, and the issues with closers in general. First, K-Rod himself. K-Rod is quite simply, overrated. "But Mr. Blogger Person! Didn't this man just set the record for saves in a season? Does that not count for anything?". No, it does not. K-Rod did not set the record for saves because he was particuraly good. He set said record because he also had a record number of save opprotunities, on a team which provided plenty of them. In the handy Bill James 2009 Handbook I recently bought, it says that of K-Rod's record 62 saves, 39 were "easy saves", which came up by 3 with the bases empty. Only one save out of those 62 was a "tough save" where the tying runner was in scoring position. K-Rod was not a great closer. He merely was on the right team in the right place in the right time. Furthermore, his skills have actually been degrading. In the past 3 years, his walk rate has gone up along with his ERA, while his K rate has sloped downward, a couple of trends Met fans better pray don't continue. On top of all that, he may not be healthy much longer, considering his mechanics. Watch him pitch. You wince just watching that.
But assuming he is that good, and assuming he will stay healthy for the duration of his contract, is he, or any other closer, worth 36 million dollars of a teams money, money that could be used elsewhere to get hitters and starters and such? Think about it. K-Rod's new Mets teammate, Johan Santana, is paid approximately (all the figures below are approximate, just to make it easier on everyone) 18 million dollars. That means, at his 2008 stats, (234 Innings Pitched, 964 Batters faced) Johan Santana, one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, was paod approximately $77,000 pr inning, and $19,000 per batter. To poor folks like me and you, that does seem like a lot. However, take K-Rod's new salary, and apply it to his 2008 stats (68 Innings pitched, and 288 Batters faced0 you come out with approximately $176,000 per inning(!) and $41,000 per batter faced. Essentially, Johan Santana, one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, is being paid less for the work he does then K-Rod is. I dont care how good of a closer you are, a good closer does not equal a good starter, who is way more valuable. Why, then is K-Rod paid as much as he is. "Fine. A little overpaid. But you need a proven closer, and you gotta spend to get a good closer!" you might say. But, while this is the conventional wisdom, recent evidence suggests otherwise. Many teams have found thier closer not by signing a free agent proven closer, but by taking a raw young fireballing starter and letting him close, or by taking an injury prone starting pitcher and letting him close. Trevor Hoffman? Failed starter. Mariano Rivera? Failed starter. Bobby Jenks? Failed starter, picked up off waivers. Kerry Wood? Injured starter. John Smoltz? Injured starter. I can go on and on, but the point is, there are plenty of ways to find yourself a closer by acting intelligently and creatively, rather than spending 36 million dollars. People, for whatever reason, like to attach mystical qualities to the closer, but at its core its a relatively simple job. Pitch one inning. Dont Screw Up. There are plenty of raw young fireballers who can do that but never get that chance because thier team is too busy wasting money and talent trying to sign that "proven closer" (like K-Rod's former team, the angels, now chasing free agent Brian Funetes, even though they have plenty of capable young guys like Jose Arredono) so he could be that mythical stopper the press all loves. Take the ongoing drama with Joba Chamberlain. Closer? Starter? Starter? Closer? It seems clear to me that Joba can be a dominating closer. However, it also appears to me that he can be a dominating starter, which is a more valuable role. Wasting that talent on one inning a night, while paying 160 million for a guy to fill that rotation spot, is a cryin' shame, plain and simple, when there's dozens of other guys who can fill that particular role. The moment David Price saved Game 7 for the Rays in the ALCS, i remarked sardonically, "if he was on the Yankees, everyone would be clamoring to keep him at closer". Unfortunately for the human race in general, I was right. The next day, a local sports columnist advocated keeping Price at closer because "while statistical analysts may say Price would be more valuable as a starter, there's no way to quantify the edge a team has by knowing they have a shutdown closer". Putting aside the slap at science and reason, putting aside the pseudo-mystical qualities he assigns the "shutdown closer", there are 50 other guys who can do the same thing who are not the number one frickin prospect in baseball!!!!!!!!! You say David Price has the right attitude, the right demeanor to close? Well one of those 5o probably does too. One of those 50 will become a Trevor Hoffman, a Bobby Jenks, a Brad Ziegler, etc etc.
In sum, the Mets signing of K-Rod was a no-brainer in all senses of the word. It was an obvious solution to an obvious problem, but a solution that lacked in thought or creativity. The problems is solved, essentially, but it could have been solved cheaper and better if Omar Minaya had ignored the press and thought a little out of the box.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

I wish I wrote this

A facebook note i shamelessly ripped off from one Benjy Tocker, I wish I had written this, but I didn't so I shall post it now and claim it my own. Take that, copyright laws!
and here it is...
I HATE "EDWARD CULLEN"
by Benjy Tocker

I HATE "EDWARD CULLEN"
k so i just finished watching a video called "7 things men can learn from edward cullen" {link is on the bottom} and I'd like to respond to what this creepy lady (and any obsessed twilight fan) has to say.

SHHHHUUUUUUUTTTTTTTTTTTT UUUPPPPPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edward Cullen is not real. He is merely ink on a paper. E.D.W.A.R.D.C.U.L.L.E.N.
There you go. Edward Cullen is in this note right now. Say hi to him.
Not only is he a fictional character, he is also created by a woman. So, this woman was merely projecting her own feelings of emptiness and lust and longing for a man. She wants a decent man in her life. I bet you that Stephenie Meyers just wanted a decent man in her life so she just created one. Now who is she to tell us men how to act around women.
This video repeatedly tells us to "be man enough" to do this, or "man up" and do this. My answer? You are a girl. Do not tell me how to be a man. When you grow male genitalia, let me know how it feels to be a man, and then maybe you may tell me how to be a man. Being the type of man that twilight suggests will actually guarantee you not to girls. Why, you ask? Because none of the girls i am pursuing is a fictional character named Bella. If by some chance i were to be pursuing a fictional girl named Bella, I would no doubt succeed, she could join me in late night conversations in the psych ward, and possibly even help me take my pills. I would show her off to all of the doctors and nurses and see their stunned reactions to how unbelievably good looking my imaginary girlfriend is. But I will never get Bella, because I am not Edward Cullen.

I digress:
Edward Cullen is not even that great of a character. The dude is '17' but he can live forever, and his random spewing of sentiment like your 80 year old grandfather is supposed to be appealing???!!!
All he does is spew platitudes in his icy vampire tone. At least Barak Obama delivers his worthless platitudes with warmth. The way he shows his love for Bella by telling her how perfect she is just emasculating himself. And I'm being told to "be a man" just like him?!! No thanks, I'd like to keep my genitals. This is what I found on askyahoo: Every sentence describing him features the words "perfect," "flawless," "beautiful," "astonishing," and/or "breath-taking." (Here's a fun game: take a drink every time Meyer uses some elaborate adjective to describe him. You'll be in the hospital by chapter seven.)

I wholeheartedly agree. She overemphasizes his beauty to the point where it is impossible for some naive teen not to fall in love with him. My point is, Edward Cullen is merely a figment of some girls Utopian imagination, projecting her feelings for the flaws of the male gender by creating one man gay enough to sacrifice his manhood for some chick.

Now, for Bella: You are an idiot. A naive little teenage girl. You obviously have some weird desire to snuggle against a cold marble slab named Edward Cullen. The good part of this is that he will live forever, and you will not. You will die, and in a few hundred years he will have had millions of other girls who are better looking than you snuggle up against his icy marbleness and listen to his platitudes. Do you honestly think that everything he says about you being the most beautiful looking girl he has ever seen in his entire (unknown amount of year) existence is true? Good thing you're only ink on paper, otherwise I'd say that you're an idiot.

Edward Cullen is abusive and a stalker. Girls only like him because he is good looking.






http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6d5YLGgYtM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7q3-tqxkBY&annotation_id=annotation_134044&feature=iv


Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Running Commentary On Election

Just started this. It's 8:15 right now, im watching CNN. I decided on CNN because Fox News is well, Fox News, and MSNBC is also sickeningly partisan. Im waiting till the daily show goes on at 10.
anyway, they just had reports from correspondents at each home rally for McCain and Obama. I think what their homes bases are like is a perfect sum up of the differences between the candidates. At Obama's rally, they had to get a new microphone for the correspondent because they couldn't hear her over the raucous crowds in Grant Park. McCain's supporters, however, are situated in a nice hotel in Phonenix. The Phonenix Boys Choir just performed. Need I say more?

CNN is holding out on calling Pennsylvania for Obama, but others have already. Numerous people have said McCain has no chance without Pennsylvania. So that's good. In other battleground states, Obama seems to have the edge in all of them.

I cant imagine what its like to be running for president and watch a wall of TV's telling you you're losing. I think its something like this


But as we all know, John McCain is used to torture... (yes, i know. I'm a terrible human being)
Now, imagine how Hilary Clinton's doing....(throws chair at tv screen.."IT SHOULD'VE BEEN ME!!!)

CNN just called Pennsylvania for Obama. McCain is pretty much screwed now.

...and Elizabeth Dole goes down

CNN just had a guy on saying that race was not a factor in this election, as people polled said it wasn't, as compared to other factors like age. Thing is, that if you ask a guy point blank, basically if he's a racist, even if it was a factor for him, he'll probably say no. a) as Malcom Gladwell showed in his excellent book Blink, our reactions to race often operate on a subconscious level, and b) why would you admit this? It's considered taboo to say you're a racist, even if you are. This is where the Bradeley Effect comes from. In short, CNN just said something silly.

What i am enjoying is watching the ultra-conservative idiots from my school and elsewhere post mournful, almost emo-like, status updates on the election. Some highlights.

"------- is on the verge of crying at the stupidity of the self righteous liberals."
(replace "self righteous liberals" with "my girlfriend" and voila! emo!)

"------- is please people, vote McCain. Vote for a future by not voting Obama."
(vote for a past that never existed by voting for McCain)

"-------
has to fast if Obama wins the election."
(has to? seems a little harsh)

"------
lets all pray that obama loses."
(lets all pray you get gonorrhea)
"------
s wow america. a fucking socialist nouchebag now runs your lives. fuck that im moving to australia"
(enjoy australia, sucker)
"------ posted a video...The End by The Doors"
(...of bush's presidency, thank god)

Also on facebook, possibly the stupidest group I've ever seen: If Barack Obama wins, I'm Moving To Canada. Apparently to flee socialized healthcare.

Monday, October 27, 2008

The First Rule Of Moneyball Is....



According to a Variety piece, Moneyball, one of my favorite all time books, is being made into a movie, with Brad Pitt to star. That means that the actor who played one of my fictional role models will now play one of my real life role models. My worship is all confused now. But anyway, Pitt appears to be a good choice to play Beane, but I can't help but intersperse scenes from Moneyball with Fight Club in my head. Like Beane throwing a chair into a wall and yelling "YOU ARE NOT A BEAUTIFUL AND UNIQUE SNOWFLAKE, JEREMY BONDERMAN!", or Scott Hatteberg saying "I am jack's picking machine", or Lenny Dykstra beating the crap outta Beane and saying "I wanted to destroy something beautiful"....ok, time to stop the bad Fight Club jokes...now before I make snide remarks on Troy, I shall go....
But god, I wonder how it must feel to actually be played by Brad Pitt...just like walking around, introducing yourself to random women "Hey baby, Brad Pitt played me"

Random Band I'm Obsessed With At The Moment: A Reoccuring Segment

This weeks random band I'm obsessed with at the moment (drum roll)....
The 22-20's


This British band, which sadly broke up in 2006, has got a great bluesy, folky, somewhat punky sound to them. One reviewer has described them as sounding like "Jimi Hendrix covering the White Stripes". The white stripes are one of my favorite bands, and Hendrix is Hendrix. They only managed to release one album before they broke up, but i recommend tracking it down.
Illegally Download: "Shoot Your Gun", "Devil In Me"
Sounds like: White Stripes, Gun Club, Arctic Monkeys,

Is this the worst world series in history?

I would think so, as I'm watching this extremely rainy game 4. They pretty much just called a delay as a type this, and its about time, as its basically unplayable out there. The series so far has been dissapointing. We thought we were getting a series of two evenly matched teams, with the Rays young players and the Phillies combo of Howard and Utley. Instead, Evan Longoria has been abysmal, Carlos Pena has been almost as bad, and all the games have been yawners, with the notable exception of game 3, which was a yawner till the 9th. I dont think I need to say, the Umpiring has been nothing short of terrible. Now, I'm not one to bash umpires. I actually worked as one during the summer, and it was one of the more terrible experiences of my life. I can only imagine what its like when you're umping 30 year old billionares instead of snot nosed 10 year old kids. But seriously, some of those calls have been terrible. Rays should have had a balk, Moyer got Crawford, and, yes, Longoria tagged Rollins right on the butt, right in front of the third base umpire. And the balls and strikes have been no great shakes either.
If there is a bright spot to the series, its BJ Upton. Upton showed off his immense speed in game 3, hitting an infield single, stealing second, stealing third, and scoring on an error. He's played a stellar centerfield (funny, for a guy who was blasted for his terrible SS defense in the minors), and has hit 7 HR's in the postseason. He just made an extremely heads up play, making sure his left hand tagged the plate as he slip-n'-slided past it to score the tying run. He's got loads of talent, with the power emerging, the speed and defense there, and the rare patience (97 regular season walks) for a young player. If I have to compare him to another player from baseball history, Willie Mays is a blasphemous, but possible choice. But right now, figure Rickey Henderson, with great CF defense.

Friday, October 17, 2008

The 27 Club-Peak Connection

When playing fantasy baseball, as I do, there are many things to consider when picking players. Their stats, certainly, but their team, their injury history and many other things go into the equation. One of the more important considerations is a players age. Take two identical pitchers. Say both play for winning teams. Both are about the same size and have put up similar stats. Both have been more or less healthy. Seems about even, right? But say Player A is 27 years old, and Player B is 34. Then it becomes easier to take player A. He is younger and has more promise, while player B may not have much left. But what age would be the best to take a player. On average, what do baseball players reach their prime. The answer used to be assumed to be around 30 or so. However, recent sabermetric studies by guys like Bill James and Baseball Prospectus have determined that players tend to have their best years at the age of 27. Every year, another guy busts out and has a career year at his magical age 27 peak. We saw it this year with Justin Morneau, Carlos Zambrano, Joe Saunders, K-Rod, Rich Harden, and Josh Hamilton. All of those guys had great years, and they were all 27.
Besides for being a good strategy for fantasy baseball, the age 27 has another, more sinister distinction. Many rock stars have died at the age of 27, joining the so-called "27 Club". Members of this club include Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Jim Morrison, Brian Jones (founder of The Rolling Stones), Kurt Cobain, Robert Johnson, and a bunch of others. Weirdly, all these rockstars died in the age that baseball studies dictate that someone is in thier prime. I think this makes the 27 Club a little bit more important. In some respects, every single one of the members of the 27 Club were at the very top of thier game. And then they died suddenly. It's like a pitcher who just won the Cy Young retiring suddenly.
So, I have named this blog "27 Club Peak", because I like talking about sports, pop culture, and how they occasionally have weird collisions. The fact that baseball players peak at 27, and rock stars die at 27, is one of those weird coincidences I like to look at. Enjoy my blog.